President Donald Trump said on Thursday he will soon decide whether to widen the war on Iran, warning that the United States might have to destroy the rest of the country, in his bluntest language yet about a conflict that has hung over the region for months. Speaking in the Oval Office after meeting his national security team, Trump said the administration would decide whether to go further and ensure Iran nuclear programme can never be revived. He added that he would rather not destroy the rest of the country, but maybe I will have to, and that people would know soon enough.
Why it matters
The meeting was the first on Iran since the midterm elections, according to two United States officials, and it came after a week of mixed signals from the White House. On Monday Trump had said he was not considering new strikes after the midterms, and he told one news outlet there was no rush to decide, although one way or the other Washington will act. By Thursday the tone had hardened again, and Trump claimed Iran could take 25 to 30 years to rebuild, while acknowledging that 18 United States service members have died in the conflict.
The debate inside the administration is between three options: further strikes, continued economic pressure, or a deal. Vice President JD Vance is urging an agreement, and Qatari mediators are working on a draft deal meant to head off renewed fighting and possibly restart direct talks. Iran has demanded an end to the United States naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen funds before it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and it has condensed its seven step proposal so it could be carried out within two days. Both sides are reviewing proposals put forward by the mediators.
What happens next
The oil market has been reading the signals day by day. Brent crude fell to about 93 dollars a barrel on Thursday as hopes of diplomacy eased fears of immediate escalation, after falling nearly 9 percent on Wednesday. The drop shows how much of the oil price is now a war premium, and how quickly it can unwind when diplomacy looks possible. Traders are watching the same question as everyone else: whether the next headline is a strike or a signature.
What happens next will be decided in Washington, Doha and Tehran, and probably soon. The draft deal has not been published, no deadline has been set, and Trump has reversed course on military action before, which is why the market treats every statement as provisional. If the mediators can get both sides to back the draft, the war that began on February 28 could move toward a settlement. If they cannot, the decision Trump promised will arrive, and the region will learn what going further means.
