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The World Trade Organization has more than doubled its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026, saying a surge in artificial intelligence investment helped offset disruption from the war in the Middle East. Trade volumes are now projected to grow 3.9% this year, up from a March baseline of 1.9%, with a further rise to 4.1% expected in 2027.
The upgrade was driven by booming trade in AI-enabling goods. Shipments of semiconductors, servers and related equipment jumped about 67% from a year earlier and accounted for nearly half of all global merchandise trade growth, as companies and governments raced to build data centres and computing capacity.
The picture for services was weaker. The organisation cut its services trade forecast to 3.3% growth for 2026, down from 4.8%, blaming higher aviation fuel costs tied to the conflict. Transport and travel services, both heavily exposed to the region, saw their outlooks cut sharply, though a rebound to 6.4% growth is expected next year.
World economic output is expected to grow 2.6% in 2026, led by Asia at 4.3%, while the Middle East faces a steep contraction. The report credited supply chains with adapting to shocks in energy, fertiliser and transport markets, keeping essential goods moving to businesses and households.
Risks remain. Economists warned that higher fuel and fertiliser costs linked to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could squeeze household purchasing power, and that any slowdown in AI investment would remove the sector currently doing most of the heavy lifting for global trade.
